Unit information: Natural Hazards and Risk Assessment in 2012/13

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Unit name Natural Hazards and Risk Assessment
Unit code EASCM1012
Credit points 10
Level of study M/7
Teaching block(s) Teaching Block 1A (weeks 1 - 6)
Unit director Professor. Juliet Biggs
Open unit status Not open
Pre-requisites

Successful completion of years 1-3 of either the Environmental Geoscience or the Geology degree programme curriculum (MSc students please contact the unit director).
Co-requisites

n/a
School/department School of Earth Sciences
Faculty Faculty of Science

Description including Unit Aims

This unit will explore the science of natural hazards with particular emphasis on the characteristic effects of individual hazards (timescales, footprints and precursors) and interaction with decision-making processes. Recent and historical case studies will serve to illuminate the dynamic physical processes that are present in hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, and volcanism and the response both within the scientific community and by policy makers. The unit will also introduce some of the basic principles of the statistics that describe the likelihood of a hazardous event occurring, will promote understanding of scientific uncertainty, and introduce students to formal methods of expert elicitation.

Intended Learning Outcomes

On successful completion of the unit you will be able to:

  • Demonstrate an understanding of natural hazards processes and the assessment of risk and uncertainty
  • Analyse and review recent and historical case studies which have had a large societal and environmental impact
  • Explain the role of scientists in hazard assessment, hazard mitigation and crisis management.
  • Critically analyse statistical data and information that can be used to characterise hazards, vulnerability and risk
  • Appreciate the different factors that can strongly influence science-informed decisions in different contexts

Teaching Information

Lectures and practicals

Assessment Information

This unit constitutes 10 credit points and 100 marks to your end-of year results. The coursework assessment (33%) will be based on the city hazard study. A closed exam in January during weeks 11 to 12 will constitute the remaining 67%. Assessment criteria follow science faculty guidelines.

Reading and References

Earthquakes and Faulting Reading: Schwartz, S. Y., and J. M. Rokosky (2007), Slow slip events and seismic tremor at circum-Pacific subduction zones, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG3004, doi:10.1029/2006RG000208; Moreno, M., Rosenau, M., Oncken, O., The 2010 Maule earthquake slip correlates with pre-seismic locking of Andean subduction zone. Nature 467 doi 10.1038/nature09349; Wells, D. L. Coppersmith, K. J. (1994). New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture length, and surface displacement, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 84, 974- 1002; Wright, B.E. Parsons, J.A. Jackson, M. Haynes, E.J. Fielding, P.C. England, P.J. Clarke, Source parameters of the 1 October 1995 Dinar (Turkey) earthquake from SAR interferometry and seismic bodywave modelling, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 172,1999, Pages 23-37, 10.1016/S0012-821X(99)00186-7; G. C. P. King, R. S. Stein and J. Lin, Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 84, pp. 935-953, 1994; Stein,R., Barka, A., Dieterich, J. 1997 Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophysical Journal International. 128. 594–604,DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x; Wright, TJ (2002) Remote monitoring of the earthquake cycle using satellite radar interferometry, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, 360, pp.2873-2888; Sieh, Kerry E., Jahns, Richard H. Holocene Activity Of The San Andreas Fault At Wallace Creek, California Geological Society Of America Bulletin 1984 95: 883-896; Bürgmann, R., Schmidt, D., Nadeau, R.M., d'Alessio, M., Fielding, E., Manaker, D., McEvilly, T., Murray, M. Earthquake Potential Along the Northern Hayward Fault, California Science 2000: 289 (5482), 1178-1182. Tsunami Reading: Bondevik S, Mangerud J, Dawson S, Dawson A, Lohne Ø (2003) Record-breaking height for 8000-year old tsunami in the North Atlantic. EOS 84:289–293; Walter H.F. Smith, Remko Scharroo, Vasily V. Titov, Diego Arcas, and Brian K. Arbic Satellite Altimeters Measure Tsunami. Oceanography Vol.18, No.2, June 2005; Ward, S. N., and S. Day (2001), Cumbre Vieja Volcano—Potential collapse and tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(17), 3397–3400, doi:10.1029/2001GL013110; Costas E. Synolakis, Jean-Pierre Bardet, José C. Borrero, Hugh L. Davies, Emile A. Okal, Eli A. Silver Suzanne Sweet and David R. Tappin. The slump origin of the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 2002 458, 763-789; Moore, G.F., N. L. Bangs, A. Taira, S. Kuramoto, E. Pangborn, H. J. Tobin. Three-Dimensional Splay Fault Geometry and Implications for Tsunami Generation Science 16 November 2007: 318 (5853), 1128-1131. General reference: Bernard EN, Robinson AR (eds) (2009) The Sea, Volume 15: Tsunamis. Ideas and Observations on Progress in the Study of the Seas. Harvard University Press. 462pp, ISBN 978-0674031739.

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