Unit information: Epidemic Data Analysis and Modelling in 2024/25

Unit name Epidemic Data Analysis and Modelling
Unit code BRMSM0090
Credit points 20
Level of study M/7
Teaching block(s) Teaching Block 2 (weeks 13 - 24)
Unit director Professor. Brooks Pollock
Open unit status Not open
Units you must take before you take this one (pre-requisite units)

None

Units you must take alongside this one (co-requisite units)

None

Units you may not take alongside this one

BRMSM0087

School/department Bristol Medical School
Faculty Faculty of Health Sciences

Unit Information

Why is this unit important?

Pandemics of infectious diseases are one of the biggest and most serious risks facing the UK and countries worldwide, impacting all aspects of society now and in the future. Infectious diseases affect all of us – from changing the way we interact with others during a pandemic to what vaccines we receive. Infectious disease modelling underpins decisions involved in pandemic planning, vaccine scheduling, and day-to-day outbreak management. This type of modelling involves analysing epidemic data, estimating key epidemiological parameters and developing dynamic mathematical models that describe how a disease may spread in the population. This unit aims to build understanding of epidemic data, key epidemiological quantities and give you a grounding in epidemic theory.

How does this unit fit into your programme of study

This unit will build on many of the skills acquired from earlier units of your MSc, and apply them to communicable, infectious diseases. You will learn how to apply the fundamental concepts of statistical inference and model performance measures learnt in earlier units to tune and assess dynamic models and estimate parameters.

Your learning on this unit

An overview of content

This unit will give you an understanding of epidemic data and theory, and teach you to use analysis tools for estimating epidemic quantities such as the reproduction ‘R’ number. We will cover:

  • Types of data needed for infectious disease modelling
  • Visualising epidemic data and obtaining preliminary key epidemic summary measures
  • Using differential equation models to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a population
  • Statistical inference of epidemic parameters
  • Critical evaluation of modelling papers, and best practice for communicating model outputs
  • Scenario modelling of policy options

How students will be different as a result of the unit

You will have the theoretical knowledge and practical skills to appropriately analyse epidemic data. You will be able to continue in the field of infectious disease modelling, either with further study or in a professional capacity.

Learning Outcomes

On successful completion of the unit, you should be able to:

  1. Discuss the use and relevance of quantities such as the reproduction ‘R’ number, the epidemic growth rate, and the final epidemic size for characterising epidemics.
  2. Identify sources of data suitable for infectious disease model development.
  3. Devise an appropriate plan for analysing observational/surveillance epidemic data, including data cleaning, manipulation, visualisation and analysis.
  4. Use the R programming language to estimate theory-informed epidemic statistics from time series case data, and present results using graphics and summary measures.
  5. Apply epidemic theory to develop mathematical descriptions of infectious disease transmission.

How you will learn

Learning epidemic data analysis and modelling skills is most effective when students have the opportunity to apply their knowledge through practice. Teaching on this unit is therefore a combination of lectures and practical sessions. Lectures will introduce theoretical concepts and methods, supplemented with small group work, discussions, and individual tasks. Practical sessions will involve activities reflecting the way modelling is often done in real epidemic research studies, where discussions, collaborative/team working, and hands-on experience help strengthen understanding of how modelling is done.

Directed and self-directed learning will include activities such as reading, accessing web-based supplementary materials, critical analysis, and completion of assessments.

How you will be assessed

Tasks which help you learn and prepare you for summative tasks (formative):

The first type of formative assessment will take the form of questions and quizzes in lectures and practical sessions and the associated feedback obtained from lecturers/tutors and peers. You will also practice model development and hypothesis generation.

The second formative assessment will take the form of group work, where you will tackle an epidemic research question and present your findings to the class (ILOs 1-5).

Tasks which count towards your unit mark (summative):

The summative assessment will consist of one piece of coursework. You will tackle an epidemic research question and produce a report containing background on the disease, description of data and methods, and results including epidemic summary statistics. You will also submit your code (ILOs 1-5).

When assessment does not go to plan

If you do not pass the unit, you will normally be given the opportunity to take a reassessment as per the Regulations and Code of Practice for Taught Programmes. Decisions on the award of reassessment will normally be taken after all taught units of the year have been completed. Reassessment will normally be in a similar format to the original assessment that has been failed.

Resources

If this unit has a Resource List, you will normally find a link to it in the Blackboard area for the unit. Sometimes there will be a separate link for each weekly topic.

If you are unable to access a list through Blackboard, you can also find it via the Resource Lists homepage. Search for the list by the unit name or code (e.g. BRMSM0090).

How much time the unit requires
Each credit equates to 10 hours of total student input. For example a 20 credit unit will take you 200 hours of study to complete. Your total learning time is made up of contact time, directed learning tasks, independent learning and assessment activity.

See the University Workload statement relating to this unit for more information.

Assessment
The assessment methods listed in this unit specification are designed to enable students to demonstrate the named learning outcomes (LOs). Where a disability prevents a student from undertaking a specific method of assessment, schools will make reasonable adjustments to support a student to demonstrate the LO by an alternative method or with additional resources.

The Board of Examiners will consider all cases where students have failed or not completed the assessments required for credit. The Board considers each student's outcomes across all the units which contribute to each year's programme of study. For appropriate assessments, if you have self-certificated your absence, you will normally be required to complete it the next time it runs (for assessments at the end of TB1 and TB2 this is usually in the next re-assessment period).
The Board of Examiners will take into account any exceptional circumstances and operates within the Regulations and Code of Practice for Taught Programmes.