Unit information: Probability and Rationality in 2025/26

Please note: Programme and unit information may change as the relevant academic field develops. We may also make changes to the structure of programmes and assessments to improve the student experience.

Unit name Probability and Rationality
Unit code PHIL30078
Credit points 20
Level of study H/6
Teaching block(s) Teaching Block 1 (weeks 1 - 12)
Unit director Professor. Pettigrew
Open unit status Not open
Units you must take before you take this one (pre-requisite units)

None

Units you must take alongside this one (co-requisite units)

None

Units you may not take alongside this one

None

School/department Department of Philosophy
Faculty Faculty of Arts

Unit Information

The concept of probability gives rise to deep and interesting philosophical questions. Moreover, many philosophers believe that probability theory can shed light on traditional problems in epistemology and metaphysics. This course provides a philosophical introduction to probability theory, and shows how probability can be used to help understand the nature of rational belief, rational action, and causation. Questions to be discussed from the following: Is probability an objective feature of reality, or is it a concept that we are forced to use because of our epistemic limitations? Is there more than one concept of probability? Can probability theory help solve the problem of induction? Does probability theory provide constraints on a rational person's degrees of belief? What is the relationship between probability and causality?

Your learning on this unit

On successful completion of this unit students will be able to:

  1. demonstrate a sophisticated knowledge of and acquired an in-depth understanding of the central debates and positions in Bayesian epistemology, including the epistemic and ontic notions of probability, i.e., credence and chance.
  2. demonstrate familiarity with the central contemporary literature on these debates and positions;
  3. demonstrate a working knowledge of the mathematical properties of probabilities and the central mathematical results on which the philosophical arguments in this area are built;
  4. demonstrate skills in the researching, reading and presentation of complex material, on these debates and positions, as appropriate to Level-H.

How you will learn

Lectures, small group work, individual exercises, seminars and virtual learning environment.

How you will be assessed

Tasks which help you learn and prepare you for summative tasks (formative):

None

Tasks which count towards your unit mark (summative): 

  1. Journals, 1500 words (30%) [ILOs 1-4]
  2. Essay, 3000 words (70%) [ILOs 1-4]

When assessment does not go to plan

When required by the Board of Examiners, you will normally complete reassessments in the same formats as those outlined above. However, the Board reserves the right to modify the form or number of reassessments required. Details of reassessments are normally confirmed by the School shortly after the notification of your results at the end of the academic year. 

Resources

If this unit has a Resource List, you will normally find a link to it in the Blackboard area for the unit. Sometimes there will be a separate link for each weekly topic.

If you are unable to access a list through Blackboard, you can also find it via the Resource Lists homepage. Search for the list by the unit name or code (e.g. PHIL30078).

How much time the unit requires
Each credit equates to 10 hours of total student input. For example a 20 credit unit will take you 200 hours of study to complete. Your total learning time is made up of contact time, directed learning tasks, independent learning and assessment activity.

See the University Workload statement relating to this unit for more information.

Assessment
The assessment methods listed in this unit specification are designed to enable students to demonstrate the named learning outcomes (LOs). Where a disability prevents a student from undertaking a specific method of assessment, schools will make reasonable adjustments to support a student to demonstrate the LO by an alternative method or with additional resources.

The Board of Examiners will consider all cases where students have failed or not completed the assessments required for credit. The Board considers each student's outcomes across all the units which contribute to each year's programme of study. For appropriate assessments, if you have self-certificated your absence, you will normally be required to complete it the next time it runs (for assessments at the end of TB1 and TB2 this is usually in the next re-assessment period).
The Board of Examiners will take into account any exceptional circumstances and operates within the Regulations and Code of Practice for Taught Programmes.